Sé el primero en valorar “Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir”
Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir
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Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, limited knowledge of the number and locations of vampire bat roosts precludes informed allocation of measures intended to prevent rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental effects by fitting a log Gaussian Cox process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 45% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified environmental drivers of roost establishment. When correcting for uneven observation effort, our model estimated a total of 2340 roosts, indicating that undetected roosts (76%) exceed known roosts (24%) by threefold. Predicted hotspots of undetected roosts in rabies-free areas revealed high-risk areas for future viral incursions. Using the predicted roost distribution to inform a spatial model of rabies spillover to livestock identified areas with disproportionate underreporting and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously recognized.We provide a transferrable approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis.
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Quantifying the burden of vampire bat rabies in Peruvian livestock
Knowledge of infectious disease burden is necessary to appropriately allocate resources for prevention and control. In Latin America, rabies is among the most important zoonoses for human health and agriculture, but the burden of disease attributed to its main reservoir, the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus), remains uncertain.
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Spatial expansions and distribution of rabies in Peru
A major obstacle to anticipating the cross-species transmission of zoonotic diseases and developing novel strategies for their control is the scarcity of data informing howthese pathogens circulate within natural reservoir populations. Vampire bats are the primary reservoir of rabies in Latin America, where the disease remains among the most important viral zoonoses affecting humans and livestock. Unpredictable spatiotemporal …
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Defining New Pathways to Manage the Ongoing Emergence of Bat Rabies in Latin America
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